Sacrificing Something: Spacing, Size or Defense.
It doesn’t take a genius to see, the Detroit Pistons were bad last season.
With a roster full of deficiencies mixed with youth at almost all positions, each deserving of playing time and development, and only a few ping pong balls standing between themselves and a supposed 7’ 5” generational athlete, wins should have never been the expectation.
Adding in a barrage of injuries from players up and down the roster, highlighted by Cade Cunningham’s unfortunate shin fracture which ended his season after only 12 games, those expectations should've been lowered further.
After finishing only 17 games with a mark in the win column, it’s been made clear by the organization: it is time to see some improvements, and their actions this offseason back those statements.
Last season the Detroit Pistons finished 28th league-wide in offensive rating (109.9), 27th in defensive rating (117.8), and 28th in net rating (-7.9) according to nba.com. Simply put, they couldn’t score enough or get enough stops to win basketball games.
With the hiring of Head Coach Monty Williams, the return of Cade Cunningham, along with some of the other roster construction moves, it is obvious the Pistons are in a better position than they were just a season ago. While improvement is on the horizon, a lot of question marks are still to be answered.
Even with training camp just around the corner, plenty of things can still change between now and that first jump ball opening night, but without a major unforeseen roster overhaul, no matter the starting lineup Head Coach Monty Williams decides on, the Detroit Pistons will be sacrificing something.
(In this article I will be focusing on the starting lineup exclusively as the bench rotation is too unpredictable at this time. Cade, Ivey, and Duren are likely locks to be starting opening day, so while they are included in each of these examples, they won’t be discussed much.)
September 29th 2023 | By Bryce Hollins
Lack of Defense - Cade Ivey Bojan Stew Duren
As what at this point seems like the most likely starting lineup come opening day, it only makes sense to start here. If Bojan Bogdanovic is on the team to start the season, he is almost undoubtedly one of the five starters. With Isaiah Stewart just signing the team’s first rookie extension since 2008, he is also a strong bet to be included in this unit on day one.
During the 2022-2023 NBA season, Bojan averaged 21.6 - 3.8 - 2.6 on 48.7/41.1/88.4 shooting splits, which would be one of the best seasons of his career statistically. Now at 34 years old with two years remaining on his ~$20 million per year contract (second year partially guaranteed), it's unlikely Bojan is in the long-term outlook for this young Pistons team, but there is no doubt he can help immensely in the present.
As the best shooter and perhaps best overall scorer on a team with a backcourt of dynamic downhill drivers and playmakers, having Bojan’s spacing and gravity alongside Cade and Ivey seems the most logical, at least offensively.
On the other side of the floor is where this lineup becomes problematic.
While his third season may not have ended as many would have wished, to many, Isaiah Stewart showed enough to deserve another chance at the starting lineup.
Though the shooting was never fully actualized and was far too streaky for any true conclusions, his adaptability to switch to a more perimeter-oriented big role in order to fit alongside Jalen Duren was notable. As someone who was thought of as nothing more than an energy rim finishing big coming into the league, the ability and willingness to expand his game has been apparent since day one.
This season Isaiah Stewart averaged 11.3 - 8.1 - 1.4 on 44.2/32.7/73.8 shooting splits. While none of these stats will jump off the page, this was his first time playing this type of role which required more shooting, ball handling, and decision-making than ever before. As most would’ve guessed, it was far from perfect and while it may never truly come to fruition, the game-to-game improvements were vast, even if the stat book didn’t always reflect it.
The question with Isaiah Stewart in the starting lineup solely relies on the respect defenses are giving him. If defenders continue to sag off Stewart while on the perimeter, clogging driving lanes for the guards and daring him to shoot, this lineup simply won't work. This doesn’t mean he still couldn’t be a positive contributor, but it would likely be off the bench.
While an Isaiah Stewart and Jalen Duren frontcourt is about as good as it gets for the Pistons defensively down low, a perimeter trio of Cade, Ivey, and Bojan leaves quite a bit to be desired.
Cade and Ivey both have the potential to be at least neutral defenders down the line, though Cade clearly has the higher floor and ceiling between the two, but relying on young guards (one coming off season-ending leg surgery) or a 34-year-old Bojan to be your primary ball stopper seems less than ideal.
This lack of perimeter defense puts a ton of pressure on the bigs to clean up for mistakes, and while there is a reasonable belief that Stewart and Duren can be high-level defenders down the road, they are still young themselves at only 22 and 19 respectively. Expecting them to anchor a strong defense by their lonesome seems unlikely this early in their careers.
Lack of Size - Cade Ivey Ausar Bojan Duren
The addition of Ausar Thompson into the starting lineup makes a lot of sense for a lot of reasons for the Detroit Pistons. Most top 5 draft picks play, and they play A LOT. Despite the hope for improvement in the win column, the rookie deserves plenty of developmental reps as well, even if it results in fewer post-game celebrations.
However, there is a pretty good chance Ausar is the best perimeter defender on the team from day one, and if that's the case, he has a solid argument to be a starter on opening day.
In summer league, Ausar gave Pistons fans a glimpse of what we might see not only this season but hopefully for plenty of years to come. Averaging 13.5 - 10 - 3.5 and 4.4 stocks per game, Ausar displayed his hounding point of attack defense combined with his gliding athleticism and overall feel for the game.
There is simply no other player on the Pistons roster who offers his Swiss army knife-like versatility on the wing. Ausar could be the ball handler in a pick-and-roll and then the screener on the next possession. He will sit behind the three-point line and spot up or at the dunker spot and finish above the rim. Not to mention he is a great cutter off the ball.
While Ausar offers many things other wings on the roster cannot, he is also far from a finished product. His jump shot is still very much a work in progress and rookies will always be rookies. Plenty of mistakes will be made, though still he should and will be given an opportunity to play through them.
With Bojan still in the lineup you still have a high-level shooter capable of drawing the defense’s attention. As long as Cade, Ivey, Ausar, and Duren are the others in the lineup, this spacing will be a necessity.
While the young core's shooting development is essential for the long-term success of the franchise, each will likely be the most effective in the paint or around the rim throughout their careers. Having complimentary pieces, like Bojan, alongside them will only benefit them in the short and long term.
The biggest issue with this starting lineup would likely be spacing and the lack of size in the frontcourt. Assuming Ausar would spend most of his time defensively as the point-of-attack defender, that leaves Bojan (or Cade?) as the secondary rim protector/rebounder behind Duren, and Bojan as the only proven floor spacer.
Maybe there is a world where Duren becomes such a good defender he can anchor a quality defense as the lone frontcourt-sized player, but it likely won’t be in his second season. Expecting such out of him this early, and putting that much responsibility on a young big is unfair at best.
If you asked most Pistons fans, this would likely be the lineup the majority would prefer.
Lack of Spacing - Cade Ivey Ausar Stew Duren
The youth movement is in full swing for the Detroit Pistons.
As mentioned earlier in the article, if Bojan Bogdanovic is on the roster he will be a starter. However, there is a world where he is traded at some point before the season starts, leaving this as a likely starting lineup option.
With no player older than 22 in this lineup, development amongst the core would surely be the main priority from the front office. Even with the hiring of Head Coach Monty Williams, it wouldn’t be wise to expect much more than general improvement.
While the team's youth would likely be the main detriment to the overall success of this lineup, without a single proven floor spacer on the floor, it is unlikely these five produce a quality offense this early in their careers.
There is seemingly hope within some of the Pistons fan base and front office that one, if not multiple core members are due for a jump in their shooting efficiency from behind the arc. However, even if this is the case, it takes plenty of validation to get an opposing defense to change their game plan. A strong start to the season alone isn’t enough.
While this lineup is filled with high-level athletes and processors, at some point they will need to score the ball efficiently, and having a lineup where players complement each other properly is essential in that. While they may further down the line, unfortunately at this point in the rebuild there are still a lot of question marks regarding fit amongst the young core.
From day one, this lineup should at least be FUN on defense and in transition, and despite the youth, is perhaps the best starting lineup of the bunch in regards to those specific qualities.
With Ausar blanketing primary ball handlers and Duren and Stew holding down the paint, there may be a semblance of a high-level defense somewhere in there down the line, though it would be far from perfect this soon.
With this lineup, the goal this season (and perhaps in the future) should be to force as many live ball turnovers and missed shots as possible and to RUN. With blinding end-to-end ball-handling athletes like Ausar and Ivey, a strong facilitator in Cade, and two proficient rebounding bigs down low, someone should constantly be looking to leak out in transition.
While this could very easily be the lineup Troy Weaver envisions competing with in the future, a lot of internal development will be needed, and those things take time. Though, if you squint hard enough, you may be able to see it.