Problem: How can the Pistons open up the floor?

Being able to shoot the three-ball well has never been more important. Not only can it be a relatively efficient source of offense, but the threat of stacking an NBA floor with marksmen at most positions paves the way for better motion, both on and off the ball, enabling plays that are designed to get players downhill and score at the rim (the most effective shot in basketball.) A semblance of effective players from the mid-range and post areas still holds vast importance in today’s league without a doubt, but a consistent year-over-year uptick in team offensive efficiency can be decently attributed towards higher frequency scoring at the rim (0-3 feet) and from downtown.

Effective scoring from either area tends to be a predictor of efficient team offensive performance. Scoring in the two zones often can play in tandem with one another as well - regardless if this occurs from driving offense through the inside-out (ex. post passes, drive-and-kick skip passes) or outside-in (ex. two-man game in pick and roll, post entry passes, backdoor or stampede cuts to the basket.)

As it stands, the Pistons are one of the least proficient teams in the NBA shooting beyond the arc - with a 29th-ranked 3-point attempt rate of 33.1% and a 19th-ranked 3-point accuracy rate of 35.2%.

While the Pistons are above average in their rim-scoring rate, their accuracy of 64.3% ranks 27th in the league. With their current personnel in mind, the Pistons lack of spacing has been a significant driver of struggles in both of these facets, the former slightly more than the latter. Being able to add three assumed marksmen back to the rotation has the potential to help the Pistons out a fair share in this regard.

Bojan Bogdanovic, who has yet to make his season debut but is nearing a return, seems to be the most prevalent in leading an effort towards better perimeter spacing and shotmaking in Detroit. Having shot 40.4% from 3 across all attempts dating back to the 2017-18 regular season in stints, Bogdanovic led the 2022-23 Pistons in points per game and finished second on the team in True Shooting Percentage (flanked by a 41.1% 3-point percentage.) Playing more alongside shot-creators like Cade Cunningham and Jaden Ivey will take away some of Bojan’s on-ball repetitions and result in lesser volume stats, but his off-ball usage and efficiency should remain rather solid.

In sets last year when either shooting off of ball-screens or as a spot-up scorer, Bojan averaged 1.17 and 1.26 points per possession respectively (via Synergy Sports.) Both of these marks were in the top quintile in the league last season in terms of efficiency. Out of 264 ‘Catch and Shoot’ classified three-pointers, Bogdanovic converted at a 43.2% clip. Left without him, the Pistons' options to start the season at the power forward position have featured lineups with a traditional center filling this slot - where the results can speak for themselves.

Another ‘stretch-four’ hoping to be more involved in the Pistons’ growth is Isaiah Livers, a Kalamazoo native and 4-year University of Michigan basketball player. Being 6’ 7” and 230 pounds, Livers has the physical profile and experience to hold his own at the power forward position and the 3-point proficiency (a career 37.4% shooter) to make him a valuable spacer while playing it. His 2023-24 Pistons debut came against the Denver Nuggets, in which he was inserted into the game-closing lineup, after healing a sprained ankle. While 25 years old, his career experience hasn’t exactly been robust with a total of 1605 minutes spent on an NBA court. Nonetheless, his skillset makes him a great candidate to get more experience under his feet as the season progresses.

One of the biggest positives that Livers brings, not seen with Bojan Bogdanovic, is his ability to play defense on top of shooting well for his position. While he has no eye-popping strengths, his size, and athleticism coupled with no identifiable weaknesses give him the potential to - at a minimum - tread above water on the defensive side of things. As the Pistons brain trust and coaching have faced a fair share of questions and dilemmas with minute distributions and what identity the Pistons hope to establish, head coach Monty Williams seems optimistic as to how Livers can come in and find a role.

Straight from the fountainhead, you can hear him say it himself in Pistons beat writer Keith Langlois’ recent interview with Williams:

“His ability to stay in front of the ball is going to help us and his versatility is going to help us,” Monty Williams said. “We just love his ability to space the floor, to play in point-five (taking a half-second to make a decision to shoot, pass or dribble). He’s a good passer. We’re happy to have that kind of size and versatility in the rotation.”

In my very first Pistons fleet article, ‘Sophomore Showcase,’ there were some ideas I had as to how Duren can grow while making himself a prominent part of the Pistons success. A fair share of them, which I’ll soon elaborate upon, have come to fruition so far. However, Duren has battled ankle injuries since a very impressive start and has only been featured in eight of the Pistons first fifteen games (3.5 of them at full health.)

Duren has seen some improvements across the box score growing from year one to two and still has a lot of upside as a twenty-year-old player. How much Duren has been able to open up for the Pistons front-court stable this early into his career has been rather impressive. On the offensive end, Duren’s play-finishing and vertical spacing abilities, in tandem have served as his biggest strength 75 games into his young career.

In Roshan’s article about the multi-faceted nature of effective team spacing, a great insight into the concept & benefits of vertical spacing were mentioned as follows:

“Vertical spacing usually comes from players that can be lob threats, where they can score over the top of the defense and therefore create gravity on the court vertically. The Pistons are flush with this type of gravity between Duren, Bagley, Wiseman, and even the 6’ 7” Ausar Thompson. Vertical gravity helps collapse the defensive shell around the rim and it therefore allows space to either be created at the perimeter or for the primary ball-handler. The Cunningham-Duren pick and rolls can be one of the most deadly two-man duos because of the tremendous roll gravity that Duren provides and Cade’s ability to act on that spacing as a playmaker. For example in this clip, after Duren sets the screen and rolls, it creates space for Cade to operate in the midrange and causes Vucevic to drop closer to the rim to cover the Duren lob/rim finish.”

Taking a look at the film, it has been quite evident that Jalen Duren has been the Pistons’ best vertical spacer due to his combination of size and functional capabilities such as his catch radius, spatial awareness, and overall coordination. Regardless of who is involved as a ball handler ready to feed Jalen Duren while getting downhill, opposing centers looking to defend the Pistons ball-screen actions have had a lot more comfort in Duren’s absence due to the ability to defend much closer to the ball-handler and, as a result, the higher chance of disrupting a play. With Duren out, more of these opportunities have been allocated to the center trio of Marvin Bagley, James Wiseman, and Isaiah Stewart.

To put it nicely, the three players haven’t been able to replicate the combination of traits and skills Duren brings to the table to form a potent vertical spacing threat. All of the same characteristics have given Duren an excellent profile as an interior scorer, an aforementioned area the Pistons fare poorly. Across his career, Duren has converted 74.3% of his 284 field goal attempts from 0-3 feet away from the basket and has established himself as a physically overwhelming presence down low that teams must account for.

Another area Duren is amongst the best in the entire league is the ability to do the dirty work that only gets partial credit in the box score. As I mentioned in my ‘Sophomore Showcase’ piece regarding Duren,

“Despite playing a limited / game sample of only ~25 minutes per game and starting in a little under half of these, Duren has shown that he has the ability to be one of the best rebounders in the entire league. Amongst the entire player pool, Duren ranked near the top 10 in contested rebounds per game with a very stellar rate of 46.5% in this regard. On the offensive side, in particular, the same trend holds as Duren’s ORB% ranked 5th amongst qualifying players.”

All of these rebounding indicators have looked the same across a larger minute sample this season and while facing more opponent starters as opposed to bench players. The result of Duren’s presence has been an impressive team rebounding effort that only looks better in games he has played. The Pistons ORB% and DRB% respectively have been 28.6 and 76.0, good for fifth and twelfth in the league. Duren and rookie defensive dynamo Ausar Thompson have been the primary leaders of such an effort thus far with individual ORB% values that would rank in the top ten in the league and individual DRB% values good for 6th and 29th.

On a similar note, Ausar and Duren have all the potential to become one of the best Forward-Big defensive pairings in the NBA - which is remarkable to have as a tangible possibility for two twenty-year-old players. Throughout his young career, there have been questions about the extent to which Duren can anchor a team’s defense due to some drawbacks in his game such as switchability and being able to contain away from the basket as well as positional awareness. Nonetheless, Duren’s ability to serve as an eraser at the rim and prevent easy second-chance points as a magnet on the defensive rebounding front has given him a solid foundation. The problem is one man can’t be an entire defense in a league that is more oriented toward motion and perimeter play.

By selecting Ausar Thompson at pick 5 in the 2023 draft, the Pistons took a swing on his defensive tool-kit panning out. The actuality on that end has certainly lived up to all the buzz, as Ausar has already looked to be one of the best defensive-playmaking and rim-protecting players in the NBA - where face-value steals/blocks and more granular measures of suppressing opponent efficiency paint Ausar near some of the best anchoring big-men in the NBA. With Duren’s injury and recovery, Pistons fans and basketball enthusiasts have yet to see a considerable minute sample with the two of them on the floor together. On top of the rebounding prowess both players bring towards complementing each others’ games, the versatility, ball pressure, and help-defense Ausar brings to the table can make Duren’s job of living in the paint and stifling opponents a whole lot easier as the dynamic young duo shares the floor more moving forward.

Those who have watched or followed the Pistons closely have seen rising star Cade Cunningham be thrown into the fire as a lead guard. There have been ramblings surrounding his scoring efficiency and turnover control twelve games into the year. Some of these can be attributed to Cade’s areas to improve upon as he makes a career for himself. However, the law of diminishing returns certainly applies when considering the extent to which Cade has been asked to control Detroit’s half-court offense. Subpar spacing and complementary playmaking surrounding him have cast Cade into a role where he simply is tasked with too much on his plate. While the Pistons have other players capable of being listed as a point guard on the roster, (Jaden Ivey, Marcus Sasser, and Killian Hayes) none of their idealized roles come as a floor general that puts the four surrounding players on the court in better position to generate effective offense.

With all of this in mind, one player currently injured is veteran point guard Monte Morris. Although Morris’ role is much more aligned with the definition of a role player rather than a lead guard with the self-creation pressure that leaves defenses scrambling, Morris is very good at what he does. In one of our first Pistons Fleet articles, Bryce hit the nail on the head when depicting Morris’ value propositions:

“On paper, Morris’ numbers may not jump out at you. However, averaging an efficient ten points, five assists, and three rebounds last season on 48% - 38.2% - 83.1% shooting splits is nothing to scoff at. The most impressive part? He averaged a mere one turnover per game in just over twenty-seven minutes per contest, which would actually be the highest average of his career. In other words, Morris doesn’t make many mistakes.”

This sentiment has held true across Monte’s career, with a very impressive 4.0 Assist to 0.8 Turnover (5:1) ratio in the last 5 seasons as a legitimate NBA rotation piece. While Morris hasn’t been tasked with making high-risk, high-reward “home run” caliber reads and likely won’t be with the Pistons, his ability to protect the basketball is much needed for a Pistons team dead last in the NBA in turnover percentage - with a 17.4% value which is 3.13 points below the league average of 14.27. Away from a macro level, Morris’ table-setting capabilities serve as a solid fit next to the Pistons three developing guards.

While Cade Cunningham wouldn’t have too astounding a role change playing alongside a more pass-willing point guard, having somebody who can get him the ball in much easier positions to orchestrate and/or attack from can serve as a boost for his scoring efficiency. By having him cover less mileage on the ball, and giving him more space and a better entry position to operate with we could see a large uptick in that efficiency.

Looking at Jaden Ivey and Marcus Sasser, their off-ball skills (Ivey’s ability to attack close-outs and get downhill very well driving from the wings and corners, Sasser’s ability as a catch and shoot three-point threat with “stop and pop” mid-range counters) have the opportunity to be tapped into more when playing alongside someone like Monte Morris. With all of this promise in mind, it is worth noting that Morris’ return has been pushed back further. According to Pistons insiders, Morris has continued to fight a right quadricep strain and faces six weeks (as of November 21st) before further re-evaluation.

Can the Pistons turn it around with further health or is this another season where the team truly struggles again and needs to look outward to help mend the Pistons record and the development of their core, only time will tell which path the Pistons will stumble onto.