Detroit Pistons: Sophomore Showcase
October 20th 2023 | By Rohan Kamat
As October rolls around, it feels like Christmas came early for NBA fans all over the world. All of the players’ off-season work, the establishment of chemistry amongst new and old faces alike, and positive, encouraging vibes seen from training camps synergize together to garner their fair share of excitement and hype for fans of each franchise. A tremendous case can be made that no team in the league embodies this more than the 2023-24 Detroit Pistons. To put it kindly, the last four years in Detroit’s basketball ecosystem have primarily featured steps to success - as the Pistons have accumulated a win percentage of .2649 since the 2019-20 season. This, amongst other factors, has paved the way for Detroit to embrace an organizational overhaul - headlined by the two prominent architects of this infrastructure: General Manager Troy Weaver and newly appointed Head Coach (with a record-breaking contract to show for it) Monty Williams.
A significant part of the two’s effort to lead a complete, collective return to competitive basketball & prominence in Detroit includes stockpiling talent - a process primarily done through draft success. For the Pistons to attain success this season and into the future, a lot is expected from the 2021 NBA Draft’s 1st overall pick Cade Cunningham, but there lies a case where the development of a young core holds just as much weight (if not more.) Sharp draft-day audibles, the Pistons fate in the 2022 and 2023 draft lotteries, coupled with a well-executed game plan from the Pistons brain trust, has enabled them to add four players with high potential and the ability to collectively thrive in various macro skills within basketball. In this article, I hope to touch upon all four of them and what to be rationale & optimistic for as the coming season looks to commence. The first out of a two-series article set will touch on Detroit’s 2022 draftees, 2023 NBA All-Rookie 2nd Team members, and two rising stars in Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren.
Jaden Ivey (2022 Round 1 Pick 5, Purdue) -
2022-23 Stats Per 36 Minutes: 18.9 | 4.5 | 6.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 on 52.8% True Shooting
A tall and lightning-fast point guard at 6' 4" with a +5 inch wingspan, Ivey possesses the potential to become an explosive force in the Pistons' offensive attack this upcoming season, especially as he continues to refine his skills. He's among a select group of players expected to play a pivotal role in driving the team's offensive strategy. One of the biggest areas Ivey would have to improve upon while aiming to do this is his scoring efficiency. Last year, Ivey measured considerably under the league average in true shooting percentage. At that, there are flashes in his scoring to be excited for. A few examples include his growth as a self-creator and more tangible comfort (coupled with effectiveness) as a pull-up jump shooter - both gained steam throughout the course of last season. As a prospect coming into the league from Purdue, Ivey’s concerns were more applicable to this particular area of scoring and less about his effectiveness scoring at the rim. In direct contrast to this, it was Ivey’s rim scoring from last season with more room for improvement, with his field goal percentage at the rim measuring in just under 50 percent - a decent amount under his efficiency at Purdue.
When thinking about the latter in particular (along with some other areas to be elaborated upon), the hiring of head coach Monty Williams should be vital in improving Ivey’s on-court productivity on the offensive end. One of Williams’ most well-known frameworks of play style on the offensive end is the .5 second system - a more general / less nuanced playbook decision that firmly emphasizes quick decision-making where a player almost instantly chooses to drive, shoot, or pass following the ball being passed to them. Not only could playing within such an offense improve Ivey’s feel for the game but Ivey would be set up for higher quality shot opportunities (particularly around the basket) - a huge step for his scoring efficiency to trend upwards in year two and beyond.
Intuitively speaking, another positive effect of Ivey’s offensive approach (coupled with a better X&O infrastructure) is the reinforcement of playing alongside other guards serving as traditional ‘floor-generals’ and half-court ’table-setters’ such as Cade Cunningham and Monte Morris. The former missed most of last season with leg injuries, whereas the latter looks to make an exciting ‘homecoming’ near his old stomping grounds of Flint - being a Piston for the first time after prior stints in Denver and Washington D.C. Being able to attack more as a connector and in the flow of offense rather than the primary offensive creator should help Ivey out for a couple of reasons. First off, the manipulation of a team’s defense led by another guard would lead to more space and openings on the floor for Ivey to leverage some of his world-class athleticism & quickness (along with improved shooting). Furthermore, Ivey is a younger, still growing player who is more ‘reactive’ than ‘proactive’ as a playmaker - needing some time and motion to think through a proper read as a scorer or passer. While he certainly can become more intuitive as a basketball player over time and this certainly developed further down the stretch of the season, his rim pressure and ability to get downhill serve as a solid mitigant as it stands currently. Playing in a scheme where quick decision-making is encouraged and with more space to attack would only help Ivey exert his ability to get downhill and exploit scrambling defenses with his passing
Jalen Duren (2022 Round 1 Pick Pick 13, Memphis) -
2022-23 Stats Per 36 Minutes: 13.2 | 12.8 | 1.6 | .9| 1.3 on 65.5% True Shooting
To be elaborated upon throughout, a common trend in Detroit’s draftees during the Troy Weaver era is length. This is certainly applicable to Duren and his 7’5” (+6” - relative to his height) wing span. Throughout his first year, he has leveraged that alongside other tremendous athletic capabilities to thrive as an interior scorer (alongside other basketball areas.) Most of his rather high-efficiency scoring profile is accrued through a shot diet that is mostly around the basket and off of play types such as dunker spot passes, much shorter cuts to the basket, putbacks, and rim rolls/runs. Last season, roughly 61% of Duren’s field goal attempts came at the rim (0-3 feet from the basket) with a further ~34% from 3-10 feet. On those shots, he converted at a 74.7 and 51.1 percent clip respectively.
Being able to provide such value as an interior scoring threat, something all the more impressive for a 19-year-old provides a very needed and more common value proposition for a scorer who is deployed as a ‘play-finisher.’ These sorts of archetypes (for lack of a better word) are much more common at the center position and are a major driver of scoring efficiency in a team context due to playing off of guards and wings, leading to being assisted on field goals much more often than not. Duren checking that box off this soon into his career is rather encouraging. Even with this in mind, it is worth considering what else Duren brings to the table. To answer that question: a fair share. Despite playing a limited / game sample of only ~25 minutes per game and starting in a little under half of these, Duren has shown that he has the ability to be one of the best rebounders in the entire league. Amongst the entire player pool, Duren ranked near the top 10 in contested rebounds per game with a very stellar rate of 46.5% in this regard. On the offensive side, in particular, the same trend holds as Duren’s ORB% ranked 5th amongst qualifying players. Another major value proposition Duren has to offer on the offensive end is his ability to screen effectively for ball-handlers (capitalizing on his ~6’11” and ~240-pound frame). According to PerThirtySix, Duren was 11th across the league in Screen Assists per game - once again very impressive when considering the age and minutes limitation from the prior season. In an offense that hopes to become more effective through better tactical proficiency, which includes better creativity around ball screens, Duren’s abilities ought to be valuable. A couple of things on Duren’s end that could be taken as improvement points are his scoring range and his passing ability. At that, the two macro skills certainly have some room to overlap. If Duren had more semblance of a threat shooting 10+ feet away from the basket and around the nail/post area in particular, his abilities to run dribble hand-offs & more ball-screen variants in general, capitalizing off of his already impressive vertical spacing and timely passing towards the interior, these macro skills can all be amplified. A lot of the foundation for Duren being a rather ‘scalable’ (able to fit in with various player archetypes and lineup - whilst maintaining overall value) offensive piece is there, and anticipating more growth & reinforcement of strengths vastly excites me.
On the defensive end, Duren already shows some impressive flashes. Looking at areas other than his rebounding, Duren’s shot-blocking abilities (largely a function of his vertical zap, ability to cover ground quickly, and alien-esque length) already were there from the get-go - resulting in a 3.1 BLK% (25th amongst qualifying players) and 68.9% of his blocks coming at the rim. Some more granular indicators offered by Bball Index paint a similar picture of how Duren fares as a rim deterrent - as he grades in the 90th %ile or higher amongst all players in the following categories: percentage of rim shots contested, rim contests per 75 possessions, rim defensive field goal percentage vs. expected, and rim points saved per 75 possessions. A very similar scenario exists when compared to his offense. Some tweaks, such as being more positionally aware, learning the ins and outs of defending switches, moving better horizontally, and wasting less movement as a rotator, all come with time - and all will help Duren realize his ceiling as one of the best defenders in the NBA. With how much that has been flashed as only a teenager, there is a lot to be encouraged for on both sides of the ball for Duren.
Stay tuned for part II…